2021年考博英语阅读理解模拟题21

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　　On the face of things, a fall in the number ofpeople infected with HIV (the virus that causes AIDS) from 39.5m to 33.2mover the course of a single year, as reported in this year's AIDSepidemic update from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and UNAIDS, should be cause for rejoicing. Indeed, it is, for it means there arefewer people to treat, and fewer to pass the infection on, than was previouslythought. But the fall is not a real fall. Rather, it is due to a change in theway the size of the epidemic is estimated.

　　If you factor in that change, the number ofinfected individuals has actually risen since last year, by 500,000. Yet eventhat is not necessarily bad news in the paradoxical world of AIDS. As treatmentprogrammes are rolled out around the world, death rates are falling. Accordingto the revised figures, the lethal peak, of 2.2m a year, was in 2005. Now the figure is 2.1m. Since the only way for an infectedperson to drop out of the statistics in reality (as opposed to by sleightof statistical hand) is for him to die, such increased survivorship inevitablypushes up the total size of the epidemic.

　　The best news of all, however, is that the newfigures confirm what had previously been suspected—that the epidemic haspeaked. The highest annual number of new infections around the world was 3.4m in 1998. That figure has now fallento 2.5m.

　　Both the change in the death rate and the changein the infection rate are partly a consequence of the natural flow and ebbof any epidemic infection. But they are also a reflection of the hard graftof public-health workers in many countries, who have persuaded millions ofpeople to modify or abandon risky behaviour, such as having unprotected sex, asthey have also created the medical infrastructure needed to distributeanti-retroviral drugs that can keep symptoms at bay in those who do becomeinfected.

　　The revision of the figures is mainly a result ofbetter data-collection methods, particularly inIndia(which accounts for half thedownward revision) and five African countries (which account for anotherfifth). In India many more sampling points have been established, and in allcountries better survey methods, relying on surveyors knocking on doors ratherthan asking questions at clinics, have gathered data from more representativesamples.

　　Sceptics will feel vindicated by therevision. They have suspected for a while that the older survey methods werebiased, and that the inflation thus produced was tolerated because it helped twangthe heart-strings of potential donors. However, the structures for collectingand distributing money to combat AIDS are now well established, and accuratedata are crucial if that money is not to be misdirected. The new informationalso means that the goal of treatment for all who need it will be easier andcheaper to achieve. The WHO and UNAIDS are planning to publish a report on thematter early next year, but Paul De Lay, UNAIDS's director of evidence, monitoring andpolicy, says that the financial requirements for 2010 will probably be about 5%less than previously estimated, and that by 2015 that figure will have risen to10%. Good news for everyone, then, donors and sufferers alike.

　　1. Though the number of infected individuals has risen, it is still worth rejoicing because_____

　　[A] the number of people who are dying from AIDS has decreased.

　　[B] the total size of the epidemic is shrinking in a significant extent.

　　[C] it is only a rise in the sense of statistics, instead of a real number.

　　[D] in the paradoxical world of AIDS bad news can turn out to be good news.

　　2. About the changes in the death rate and the infection rate of HIV, which one of the following statements is NOT true?

　　[A] Any epidemic will naturally has such changes.

　　[B] They are mainly aroused by the new statistic methods.

　　[C] They clearly mirror of the essential achievements of public-health workers.

　　[D] The death rate has been greatly suppressed due to massive implementation of treatment programmes.

　　3. By 2015, the financial requirements will _____

　　[A] have risen by 10% more than what have been previously estimated.

　　[B] be 10% of what have been previously estimated.

　　[C] be 10% less than previously estimated.

　　[D] be 15% less than previously estimated.

　　4. The word “vindicatde” (Line 1, Paragraph 6) most probably means_____

　　[A] confused.

　　[B] clarified.

　　[C] doubting.

　　[D] annoyed.

　　5. Towards the revision, the author’s attitude can be said to be_____

　　[A] negative.

　　[B] positive.

　　[C] indifferent.

　　[D] neutral.

　　[答案]

　　1. A

　　2. B

　　3. C

　　4. B

　　5. B

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