2017考博英语阅读题源经济学人文章每日精析（八十）

　　unviable 不可行的

　　Damn 指责

　　by a large margin 大幅度地

　　scoured 搜查，翻找

　　These projects may not be representative of China’s infrastructure-building as a whole. But there is little reason to think they are unusually bad. They are often managed with greater rigour, thanks to the involvement of outside lenders.

　　这些工程或许不能作为中国基础设施建设整体的代表。但是几乎没有理由认为它们非常地糟糕。由于国外贷款者的参与，它们的管理往往更加严格。

　　The authors’ conclusion, however, rests on their assumption about the margin for error built into the projects they looked at. Take Yuan-Mo, for example. Its projected benefits, over its first 20 years of operation, were several times greater than its costs. But as often with roads, the costs arrive early; the benefits are spread thinly over many years. In the time it takes for an investment to pay off, the resources used could have been earning a return elsewhere. So it is necessary to reduce the future payoffs by some annual percentage, known as a “discount rate”. The higher this is, the lower the value placed today on tomorrow’s gains.

　　然而，作者的结论建立在对他们关注项目的误差范围的假设上。以沅磨高速为例，它的预期收益在投入使用的前20年是成本的好几倍。但正如修路常情，成本早早到来，而收入多年都是微弱扩大。在它回报投资的时间里，投入的资源本可以用在别处赚钱。所以有必要以一定的年度百分比减少未来收益，称为 “贴现率”。贴现率越高，为了明天的收益，现值就越低。

　　discount rate 贴现率

　　So a lot turns on what rate is chosen. For historical reasons, the ADB adopts a high one of 12%. At that rate, Yuan-Mo’s ratio of expected benefits to costs equals 1.5, roughly in line with the authors’ assumptions. But at a gentler rate of 9%, the ratio improves to about 2. At a rate of 5.3% (more in line with government borrowing costs) the ratio rises to 3. With these higher margins for error, many fewer elephants turn white. At a ratio of 2, the share falls to 28%. If the ratio is assumed to be 3, the proportion of duds falls to just 8%.

　　所以许多事取决于选择什么利率。由于历史原因，亚行选择12%的高利率。按这个利率算，沅磨高速预期收益和成本比是1.5，大体符合作者的假设。但在更和缓的9%的利率下，比例大约提高到2。在5.3%的利率下(更符合政府的借款成本)比例升高到3。有这些更高的利润留出误差余地，昂贵而无用的基础建设工程会减少很多。在2%的利率下，无用工程的比重下降到28%。如果假定比例是3，其比重下降到仅有8%。

　　The authors also assume that any traffic shortfall persists throughout its life. That is not always the case. Traffic on Yuan-Mo, for example, has rebounded, according to the road’s operator. By 2015 it was 31% higher than the ADB projected back in 1999. Around last year’s lunar new-year holiday the road handled record numbers. Some white elephants turn grey with age.

　　作者还认为，任何交通量不足的情况会持续整个生命周期。情况并不总是如此。例如沅磨高速的交通量，根据道路运营商所说，已经有所回升。到2015年，它比亚行在1999年的预测要高出31%。在去年春节假期前后，沅磨高速处理的交通量创下纪录。随着时间推移，有些工程充当摆设的局面开始好转。

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