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When timesget tough, people with an abundance of disposable income are inclined to keepdisposing of it while the rest of us are forced to keep our thinner wallets inour pockets. With that in mind, Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup's chiefUnited Statesequity strategist, has created the Living Large Index, comprising stocks ofbusinesses that cater to affluent consumers. Profits and share prices ofluxury-goods makers, higher-end retailers and travel and entertainmentcompanies should hold up even if businesses serving them suffer from difficulteconomic conditions, he said.
The indexis a new creation, but back-testing shows that building a portfolio fromits component stocks would have been a far more lucrative long-termstrategy than mimicking the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. A $100investment in Living Large at the end of 1995 would have grown to $1,013 byOct. 31, compared with $252 for the S.& P. No wonder the logic behind theindex wins high marks from investment advisers. ''It certainly makes senseconceptually,'' said Charles L. Norton, manager of the Vice fund, which investsin companies like tobacco makers, gambling emporiums and purveyorsof alcohol. ''Usually in a recession, people at the lower end of the food chainare hurt most and so those catering to the luxury end tend to be relativelyinsulated.'' Mr. Norton holds one index constituent, Wynn, the owner of casinos,including one in Macaothat has become a popular destination for Asian gamblers. Asiais expected to be a source of tremendous growth for the gambling industry.
Ifcatering to well-heeled Americans is profitable, doing the same forwealthy people around the globe may be even more so. As economies develop, thenumber of rich people soars, and they have the same expensive tastes asAmericans do. ''The next big frontier for many of these luxury retailers isemerging countries, where growth is faster and the number of affluent people isgrowing even faster,'' said Andrew Peck, manager of the Baron Asset fund.'' Thereare opportunities ahead for them in markets likeChinaandIndia,where many new millionaires are being created every day.'' He expects Wynn andTiffany to benefit from those opportunities, along with a retailer not in Mr.Levkovich's index, Polo Ralph Lauren.
JohnBuckingham, chief investment officer of Al Frank Asset Management, recentlyrecommended Nordstrom and Callaway Golf. He cautioned against dependingon them and other Living Large stocks to hold their value if weakness persistsin the economy and stock market, however. Much of their sales come fromso-called aspirational buyers, those who hope to be affluent one day but arenot yet in that category. The already affluent can afford cruises and top-nameaccessories when times are tough; the would-be affluent cannot. He notedthat some of the index companies, notably Coach, Tiffany and Nordstrom,have recently reported earnings lower than analysts' estimates, a result of''aspirational buyers' slowing their purchases.
Mr. Peck'squibble is with the selection of companies from disparate industries tocreate an index that purports to track a single phenomenon. Their share pricesmay be driven by myriad factors other than the appeal of their products andservices to affluent consumers, he said. Still, the index ''makes intuitivesense to me, within reason,'' he said. ''As a result of gains on Wall Streetand a reduction of the top tax rate, the rich are getting richer. They aregoing to continue to be able to afford luxuries.''
1. When times get tough, rich people will probably_____
[A] keep an indifferent attitude towards whatever the change is.
[B] reduce their expenditure on luxury products but to a lesser degree than common people.
[C] tend to have their purchase power enhanced.
[D] have no change in their affluent spending.
2. The word “lucrative” (Line 2 Paragraph 2) most probably means_____
[A] profitable.
[B] mature.
[C] reasonable.
[D] intuitive.
3. Towards the prospect of the Living Large Index, Charles L. Norton’s attitude can be said to be _____
[A] positive.
[B] negative.
[C] indifferent.
[D] unclear.
4. Which one of the following is NOT true of John Buckingham?
[A] He did not suggest people to buy Living Large stocks recently.
[B] He thought the Living Large Index could not be immune from the weak economy condition
[C] He thought would-be affluent would reduce their expenditure on luxury when times are tough
[D] He thought it was dangerous to buy Living Large stocks if economy continues to deteriorate
5. Of the Living Large Index, Mr. Peck’s opinion is _____
[A] that the index itself is intuitive rather than reasonable.
[B] that there exist certain problem in selecting the component companies.
[C] that the logic behind the index is not reasonable.
[D] that the index cannot reflect the share prices exactly.
文章剖析:
这篇文章介绍了股票新指数Living Large指数的情况。第一段讲述Living Large 指数的基本情况;第二段讲述投资该指数回报丰厚的原因;第三段讲述一些奢侈品公司可以关注美国之外新兴国家的富人需求;第四段讲述John Buckingham对于该指数的意见;第五段讲述Peck先生对于该指数的意见。
词汇注释:
portfolio n. 证券组合 lucrative adj. 有利的,有利润的
emporium n. 商场,商业中心 purveyor n. 承办商
casino n. 娱乐场 well-heeled adj. 富有的
quibb n. 吹毛求疵的意见
难句突破:
(1) With that in mind, Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup's chief United States equity strategist, has created the Living Large Index, comprising stocks of businesses that cater to affluent consumers.
[主体句式] With that mind, Tobias Levkovich has created the Living Large Index.
[结构分析] 这是一个简单句,Citigroup’s…是作为主语的同位语;comprising…现在分词结构修饰前面the Living Large Index。
[句子译文] 发现这一点后,花期银行的美国首席资产策略师Tobias Levkovich发明了Living Large指数,该指数由专为富裕顾客提供的商品股票组成。
(2) He noted that some of the index companies, notably Coach, Tiffany and Nordstrom, have recently reported earnings lower than analysts' estimates, a result of ''aspirational buyers' slowing their purchases.
[主体句式] He noted that some have recently reported…
[结构分析] 这是一个复合句,宾语从句中,notably Coach, Tiffany and Nordstrom是主语的同位语;该宾语从句中,a result of…是前面earnings lower than…的同位语。
[句子译文] 他提到该指数的一些公司,特别是Coach, Tiffany和Nordstrom最近的收入比分析家预计的要少,这主要是因为“渴望购买者 ”的购买下降了。
题目分析:
1. When times get tough, rich people will probably_____1. 如果经济衰退的话,富人可能会_____
[A] keep an indifferent attitude towards whatever the change is.[A] 无论发生任何变化都持无所谓的态度。
[B] reduce their expenditure on luxury products but to a lesser degree than common people.[B] 减少在奢侈物品上的支出,但减少的幅度比普通人要小。
[C] tend to have their purchase power enhanced.[C] 倾向于增强他们的购买力。
[D] have no change in their affluent spending.[D] 在消费方面没有改变。
[答案]D
[难度系数] ☆☆☆☆
[分析] 细节题。文章第一段提到,当日子变得紧巴巴时,拥有大笔可支付收入的人倾向于继续花钱。从文章的多处也可以看到,富人们在经济萧条时并不会减少自己的消费,仍然购买奢侈品。显然选项B是错误的,而选项中D符合题意。A选项是错误的,因为文章没有具体说明富人们的态度问题。C选项也是一个干扰选项,人们的购买力不是买更多的东西就可以增强的,而是取决于各种因素,而文章并没有提及这些因素。
2. The word “lucrative” (Line 2 Paragraph 2) most probably means_____2. “lucrative”(第二段第二行)最有可能的意思是_____
[A] profitable.[A] 可赚钱的。
[B] mature.[B] 成熟的。
[C] reasonable.[C] 合理的。
[D] intuitive.[D] 直觉的。
[答案]A
[难度系数] ☆
[分析] 猜词题。根据上下文,“The index is a new creation, but back-testing shows that building a portfolio from its component stocks would have been a far more lucrative long-term strategy than mimicking the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index”(这个指数是个新发明,但后来的实验表明用其成分证券建立证券组合是个长期策略,要比模仿标准普尔500指数更为有利),也就是说,100美元投资于Living Large要比投资S.& P.回报更多,更能赚多的钱,因此,选项中A最为符合题意。
3. Towards the prospect of the Living Large Index, Charles L. Norton’s attitude can be said to be _____3. 对于Living Large指数,Charles L. Norton的态度可以说是_____
[A] positive.[A] 肯定的。
[B] negative.[B] 否定的。
[C] indifferent.[C] 无所谓的。
[D] unclear.[D] 不清楚的。
[答案]A
[难度系数] ☆☆
[分析] 推理题。第二段提到了Charles L. Norton称这样的指数从理论上有一定的意义,而且前面提到投资顾问都为该指数的基本原理打了高分,而Charles的观点可以看出是一个辅证。因此,Charles对该指数持肯定态度,正确答案为A选项。
4. Which one of the following is NOT true of John Buckingham?4. 关于John Buckingham, 下列哪个陈述是错误的?
[A] He did not suggest people to buy Living Large stocks recently.[A] 他建议人们最近不要购买Living Large股票。
[B] He thought the Living Large Index could not be immune from the weak economy condition.[B] 他认为Living Large指数不能避免经济衰退状况的影响。
[C] He thought would-be affluent would reduce their expenditure on luxury when times are tough.[C] 他认为未来的富有者在经济衰退时会减少在奢侈品方面的消费。
[D] He thought it was dangerous to buy Living Large stocks if economy continues to deteriorate.[D]他认为如果经济持续恶化的话,购买Living Large股票是危险的。
[答案]A
[难度系数] ☆☆☆
[分析] 细节题。第四段中提到了John Buckingham的观点,A, 第四段开头就提到他最近推荐了Nordstrom和Callaway Golf的股票;B,他提到了如果经济不景气了,一些未来才能富有的人就会减少奢侈品上的消费,该指数会受到影响;C,这点第四段提到了;D,第四段也提到了他认为如果经济弱势不该,那么靠这些股票来保值是有风险的。因此,A选项的陈述是错误的,因而是正确答案。
5. Of the Living Large Index, Mr. Peck’s opinion is _____5. 对于Living Large指数,Peck先生的观点为_____
[A] that the index itself is intuitive rather than reasonable.[A] 该指数是直觉意义上的,不是理性意义上的。
[B] that there exist certain problem in selecting the component companies.[B] 在选择成分公司时存在一定的问题。
[C] that the logic behind the index is not reasonable.[C] 该指数的逻辑是不合理的。
[D] that the index cannot reflect the share prices exactly.[D] 该指数不能精确反映股票价格。
[答案] B
[难度系数] ☆☆☆
[分析] 细节题。文章最后一段提到了Peck先生的观点,他对完全不同类的产业中选取了一些公司组成一个指出来监察一种现象有一些意见,因此B选项是正确的。A选项,原文的意思应该是Peck先生直觉上感到该指数是合理的。
参考译文:
当日子变得紧巴巴的时候,拥有大笔可支付收入的人们倾向于继续花钱,而我们其他人就不得不勒紧腰带了。发现这一点后,花期银行的美国首席资产策略师Tobias Levkovich发明了Living Large指数,该指数由专为富裕顾客提供的商品股票组成。他称即使受到经济情况的影响,奢侈品制造商、高端商品零售商旅游娱乐公司的利润和股票价格应该能支撑下去。
这个指数是个新发明,但后来的实验表明用该指数的成分证券建立的证券组合是个长期策略,要比模仿标准普尔500指数更为有利。如果1995年将100美元投资于Living Large,到10月31日已经增长到了1013美元,而投资S.& P.仅仅是252美元。因此,投资顾问为该指数的基本原理打了高分。“从理论上来讲有一定的意义,”Vice基金主席Charles L. Norton这样说,该基金投资于烟草制造商、博彩中心和酒类承办商。“在经济衰退时,一般来说,食物链底端的人们受损最多,而供给富人的商品相对损失要小得多。” Norton先生拥有一家该指数的组成证券——Wym, 这是一家赌场业主,包括在澳门的一家赌场,目前澳门已经成为受亚洲博彩者欢迎的地方了。亚洲可望成为博彩业迅速发展的源头。
如果说迎合富有的美国人可以获得丰厚的利润,那么对于全球的富人来说也是一样。随着经济的发展,富人数量迅猛增加,他们和美国人一样有着奢侈的品位。“对于许多奢侈品零售商来说,下一个大的前沿阵地就是新兴崛起的国家,这些国家发展迅速,富人数量增长迅猛。”Baron资产基金经理Andrew Peck说道。“像中国和印度这样的国家里有的是机会,在那里每天都有百万富翁诞生。”他希望Wym和Tiffany可以从这些机会中获利,以及另一家不属于Levkovich指数的零售商——Polo Ralph Lauren.
Al Frank资产管理的首席投资官John Buckingham最近推荐了Nordstrom和Callaway Golf。他认为,如果经济和证券市场弱势不变的话,依靠它们和其他Living Large证券来保值是有风险的。它们大部分的销售额来自所谓的渴望购买者,这些人希望今后某一天可以富有,但目前还不是这样。已经富有的人们有能力购买游艇以及一线品牌商品,但是如果经济不景气,那些将来的富有人群就不会再去购买这些商品了。他提到该指数的一些公司,特别是Coach, Tiffany和Nordstrom最近的收入比分析家预计的要少,这主要是因为“渴望购买者 ”的购买下降了。
Peck先生质疑针对从完全不同类的产业中选取一些公司组成的一个指数,并由此监督某一现象。他认为这些证券的价格是由多种因素制约的,而不单单是因为其产品、服务受到富有消费者的亲睐。但是,该指数“对我来说在直觉上是有道理的,”他这样说,“随着华尔街收入增加以及重要税收的削减,富人们变得更加富有了。他们会一直有能力够买奢侈品。”
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